Juniper is wrong; the Apple Watch will continue to gain (not lose) market share

The Sellers Research Firm (that’s me) disagrees, but a new study from Juniper Research has found that the four biggest smartwatch vendors — Apple, Fossil, Fitbit and Samsung — will have their market share for connected watch shipments fall to 47% by 2023, down from an estimated 58% in 2018. The decline is linked to the growth of smaller players, including Garmin, Huami and Huawei amongst others, claims Juniper.

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The research group says that Apple will remain the single largest vender in terms of shipments over the next four years, but that smaller players will thrive thanks to strategies tailored for niche markets, use cases or price points while others are releasing premium smartwatches combining the best of fitness, outdoor activity and health features.

Juniper predicts that an intensified focus on healthcare integration will also contribute to the increase of smartwatch shipments over the next few years. The research group forecasts that Apple and Withings will lead the way in terms of healthcare integration, followed by Fitbit and Garmin.

I think they’re right about the healthcare angle. It’s also why I think the Apple Watch will continue to gain market share as it gains new health care features.

Apple shipped 20.2 million smartwatches in 2018 for 16.2% of the wearables market, according to the IDC research group, which expects the company’s market share to grow to 17.3% in 2022 with 34.5 million units shipped.