Heading into the competitive holiday shopping season, Walmart is poised to capture an even larger portion of this year’s online retail sales. According to eMarketer’s latest retail forecast, Walmart will overtake Apple to become the third largest retailer in terms of e-commerce sales this year in the U.S.
The shift comes after eMarketer increased its share projections for the big-box retailer. By the end of 2018, Walmart (which includes Walmart, Sam’s Club and Jet.com) will capture 4.0% of all online retail spending in the US, totaling $20.91 billion. In eMarketer’s July forecast, eMarketer estimated that Walmart would capture a 3.7% e-commerce share this year.
Importantly, the retail giant has one of the fastest growing e-commerce businesses. This year, its online sales will grow 39.4%. Wayfair, an online-only retailer, beats it slightly with a 40.1% growth rate.
Meanwhile, Apple will grow just over 18% this year—less than last year— as domestic sales for smartphones and other consumer electronic devices begin to slow down, according to eMarketer. Its e-commerce share will remain virtually unchanged at 3.9% this year.
As fast as Walmart’s e-commerce business is growing, it still pales in comparison to Amazon. The year, the online giant will take in more than $252.10 billion domestically, up just over 29% from 2017, says eMarketer principal analyst Andrew Lipsman. That means Amazon will have a 48% share of U.S. e-commerce.
In 2018, total U.S. eMarketer forecasts that e-commerce will grow 16.0% to reach $525.69 billion. This means e-commerce will make up 9.8% of total U.S. retail sales this year.
(eMarketer is a market research company that provides insights and trends related to digital marketing, media and commerce.)