Analyst: 21 million Apple Watches will be sold in first year of availability

Speaking at the first Glance conference, Apple analyst Horace Dediu predicted that 21 million Apple Watches will be sold in their first year of availability. That would generate about $8.4 billion in revenue for Apple.

That’s based an average selling price of $400 for the smartwatch over its first 12 months of availability. The most popular model is the Apple Watch Sport, which starts at $349. 

Writing for Fortune, Philip Elmer-DeWitt says that, according to information presented at Glance, Apple currently has 80 percent of the smartphone market. Creative Strategies predicts that the Apple Watch’s sales will reach 100 million by 2017.

Glance is the first conference dedicated “to the business of the Apple Watch.” It was held on Thursday in San Francisco.