In a new report by Loup Ventures, analysts Gene Munster and David Stokman say “we believe the accelerating digital transformation will continue to drive Mac growth rates higher, and the segment will exceed investors’ expectations in 2022.”
Mac accounts for about 12% of Apple’s overall revenue and was essentially flat in the five years prior to the pandemic, up on average 1% annually. Over the past three quarters, that trend has been reversed, and Mac growth has stepped up to the mid 20% range.
Here’s Munster and Stokman’s take on future growth: While the segment’s growth rate will decline from those highs due to rising comps, we believe the Mac will be a source of upside for the company in 2022 given our expectation of Mac growth of 5% in FY22 compared to the Street looking for 2%. For FY23 we expect 5% Mac growth compared to the Street at down 4%. The reason for our optimism: a combination of work and learn from anywhere and a multi-year refresh cycle around the staged rollout of Apple’s new M1 chip across the Mac family.
For fiscal year they forecast 2021 Mac growth of 7%. Loup Ventures is a research-driven capital research firm.